Why He Could Do It: Chad Billingsley

By Kyle Elfrink
March 10, 2010 3:46pm CST


Where He Was

Just like the baseball that's a part of the Dodgers' team emblem, Billingsley's career was on an upward and onward trajectory heading into 2009. His first 68 major league starts resulted in a very impressive 35-19 won-loss record. In 2008, he seemed to enter the realm of "Ace-dom" by punching out more than a batter per inning while managing over 200 innings of work for the first time in his career. The only true knock on the righty was his inability to consistently hit the strike zone. His 80 free passes pumped up his WHIP to a rather ordinary 1.34.

Where He Went

The train kept rolling in the first half of the season, but then it sailed well off the rails in the season's final months. In fact, it's hard to find a starting pitcher that fell from a higher perch within the '09 campaign ...

Billingsley's first half: 9-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.5 K/9
Billingsley's second half: 3-7, 5.20 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7.6 K/9

Although the Dodgers would still make the postseason, the guy who actually made the NL All-Star team would not get a single starting nod in either of the team's two post season series. Instead, Billingsley was relegated to a 3.1 inning cameo in the NLCS against Philadelphia; while the likes of Vicente Padilla and Hiroki Kuroda got starting nods.

With the season finished a step short of the World Series, there were whispers that the young hurler lacked the guts to succeed or that he was hurt down the stretch. Either way, Billingsley's once run-away storyline to becoming one of the best in the game got stifled.

How He Returns

1. Lightening the load:

Through the first three months of '09, Billingsley's right arm had unleashed the most pitches in all of baseball. He had gone over 100 pitches in 15 of his first 17 starts, but amazingly, he'd tossed more than seven innings in just one of those 17.

Chad Billingsley faded down the stretch last year.
Billingsley had always been a workhorse when called on to start a game (averaging 99.3 pitches in his 100 career starts), but when you chronicle his career, it's clear that he may not be able to give you 25-30 strong starts with such pitch counts. Hopefully, the Dodgers have arrived at that same realization. In other words, if you want Billingsley strong over the full course of a year, you need to hold him back some in April and May so that you get more quality out of him in September.

The right-hander can also help himself by shrinking his pitches per plate appearance. He's been above the MLB average (3.83) every season (never below 3.87). It may seem minimal on the surface but with his career mark of 3.94, that extra pitch every time through the lineup, six times a game, 30 starts a year, adds up to nearly 200 extra pitches. Thus far, Billingsley has the innings of a workhorse, but not the beginning-to-end quality of a true workhorse.

2. Concentration and frustration:

Billingsley admits he had a hard time letting go of a bad pitch or two last year.

"There were times in the middle of a game -- and it might not have just been when a guy drove in a run, but maybe it was a guy leading off an inning with a double, something like that -- where I would think maybe I should have used a different pitch selection," Billingsley says. "Then maybe you try to overthrow or try to do too much. That's the mental part of it. But the only way to get better is by doing it, by being out there on the mound. You can't simulate it in the bullpen or by throwing batting practice. You have to be out there facing hitters in a game situation.

"You can't dwell on it. Sometimes, you throw your best pitch and a guy gets a hit and drives in a run. You can't do anything about that now. You just have to bear down and go after the next guy."

The problems surface in the numbers. He allowed just 17 taters last year, but nine of them came in innings 4-6. At the same time, his walk rate in those innings took off (walking 12% of all hitters). Entering his fifth season and with the realization of the problem, Billingsley should improve in 2010.

3. Mechanical Tune-up:

In early August of last year, Billingsley suffered a strained hamstring. It caused him to miss a couple of starts and according to those with the Dodgers, some mechanical issues developed and hindered him upon his return (evident in his 1-5, 5.01 ERA finish). There have been few specifics on what was addressed this offseason, but Billingsley has hinted that his stride shortened as he tried to protect the area in August and September. A full stride and a firm hammy should lead to better pitching.

4. Still featuring good stuff:

Throughout his minor league days, Billingsley profiled as a true power pitcher with good heat in the mid-90s that was framed by a superior slider. Those two pitches are still working their magic according to the amount of chasing done by opposing hitters.

In 2009, the Dodger pitcher saw his swing percentages jump from 2008. There was more swinging by hitters at pitches outside the zone and within the zone. At the same time, the contact percentage by those hitters was virtually unchanged at 75.9%.

A key for 2010 will be a continued refinement of a third pitch (right now, the focus is on his change-up) along with better strike zone control than he showed a season ago.

5. Three months does not make a career:

Billingsley has 100 career starts under his belt and he is just 25. In those showings, he's powered through for a .610 winning percentage and a 3.55 ERA. Even with a rather high walk rate, he's crafted a 1.37 WHIP. And, it's worth mentioning that at no point in Billingsley's ascension to the big leagues, did you hear anything, but "potential stud" when describing the hurler. He's been rolling for five years now and has a built-in track record, as well as a stretch of MLB success, giving him a pair of things that other youngsters don't often have.

If It Happens ...

17 wins, 1.34 WHIP, 3.24 ERA, 187 Ks, 191 innings pitched

Will it Happen ...

Even during what was considered to be a disappointing season, Billingsley actually lowered his career hits and walks per nine, while maintaining his strkeout rate. In other words, when an overall snapshot is taken of his 2009, he wasn't all that "below average." Billingsley got his first taste of disappointment last season and he seemed a bit shell-shocked. He's been upfront in addressing the issues this spring and seems to now realize that not every hit is an indictment of his pitching skills. Those skills have always been there, he's had a ton of success already at age 25, and he has other variables working for him (ballpark, lineup, a 4th straight year with pitching coach, Rick Honeycutt). All in all, we'll focus on the three-and-a-half very good years of pitching versus the three-month tailspin to end 2009. Don't be surprised if 2010 is Billingsley's best yet.
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