Taking Sides - First Base

By Ray Flowers
March 11, 2010 4:01pm CST


As you gear up for your draft, you need to know all the information you can gather in order to make the correct decisions. That means you canvas injury reports, spring training updates, and ADP data to help you to place players in the proper context. I hope to add another level of useful information in the following set of pieces geared to pointing out to you who might be potential draft day bargains.

In Taking Sides, I'll compare two players from the same position to one another. I'll attempt to show you why it might make more sense to take the lesser valued player later rather than the guy with the higher ADP who people seem to like a lot more.

FIRST BASE

Billy Butler (ADP 83): .301-21-93-78-1 in 608 at-bats
James Loney (ADP 177): .281-13-90-73-7 in 576 at-bats
Will Billy Butler ever develop more power?
Butler can rake. He's always been able to. Last season he produced the first "power" season of his career, hitting 21 homers (he had 19 homers in the first 772 at-bats of his career). At the same time, his stroke is still more likely to produce a double than a homer (he had 51 two-baggers last year). The reason for that is Butler is more of a groundball, line-drive type swinger. Last season was the first time he exceeded nine percent in his HR/F mark at 11.9 percent, a number which is only slightly better than the big league average of 10 percent. Since he doesn't convert too many of those flyballs into homers, he needs to hit a lot of flyballs in order to take the ball deep. He doesn't do that. In his career he owns a 1.40 G/F ratio thanks to a mere 34 percent flyball rate (the big league average is about 38 percent). That few of flyballs will inhibit further growth in the homer category, but it should allow him further success in the batting average category.

Loney is another first basemen with less than ideal power. He owns a nine percent HR/F rate in his career and has posted a number below eight percent in each of the past two seasons. With a flyball rate of 35 percent, his numbers are just a tad below those posted by Butler the past few seasons. Loney also owns a solid G/F ratio of 1.23, again pretty close to Butler. As for his batting average, last year's number should go up in 2010. Why do I say that? (1) Loney walked at a career-best rate last year, which allowed him to post a 1.03 BB/K mark, a terrific number. There aren't many players in baseball who have better than a 1-to-1 ratio that don't consistently hit around .300. (2) Though he produced a career-best LD mark of 22.3 percent last year, his BABIP mar was .299, well off his .314 career mark. A slight correction here could easily lead to a .295 mark - his career total.


Whose Side?: When comparing these two directly to one another, you clearly notice that the Butler had a sizeable advantage in batting average and home runs last season despite the fact that many of their measures really aren't that different. At the same time, Loney swiped six more bases, which led to a much closer level of production last season than you might initially think. Butler might be able to add a few homers to the party, but he is likely near the best we can expect to see from him in the category. On the other hand, if Loney can push a few more balls over the wall while boosting his average to match his career .295 mark, there shouldn't be any reason to think that he won't be able to return more value in 2010 given that he is being taken nearly 100 picks later in mixed leagues this season.


Russell Branyan (ADP 271): .251-31-76-64-2 in 431 at-bats
Aubrey Huff (ADP 326): .241-15-85-59-0 in 536 at-bats

Branyan blasted 31 homers last season for the Mariners in his first season of full-time work in his career (it was the first season he had more than 380 at-bats). He still struck out a ton (35 percent last year), which led to a poor 0.39 K/BB mark, but he did best his career batting average (.234). On top of that fact, he also posted a career-worst line drive rate of 17.5 percent despite the fact that he produced his best hit rate in four years at .300. Make sense to you? Me neither. Branyan also failed to hit well against lefties last season. The power was there, as his SLG was .481, but his batting average was a putrid .222. Unfortunately his production last season against lefties fell right in line with his career levels (.210/.397/.459). Given his struggles against southpaws, Branyan is ripe for a platoon situation. Don't forget the club also has youngster Matt LaPorta around to play first if Branyan struggles, even though he appears ticketed for left field at the moment.

Branyan fell apart in the second half, hitting a mere .193 over his final 37 games. Part of that was likely a mere regression to the mean, but his back could also be to blame. As a result of a herniated disk in his back, teams were apparently scared away from offering Branyan a big ticket deal this offseason, so he eventually signed a two-year contract with the Indians. It seems like those that passed may have known what they were doing since Branyan still has yet to appear in any game action this spring. "I think we knew this coming in ... that he was still finishing his rehab," said manager Manny Acta. "We have a lot of time left in camp... He's still not doing full-scale baseball stuff." As a result of this news, his ADP value has been on the decline for a while now, but he still comes out ahead of Huff by more than 50 selections. Odd indeed.

Aubrey Huff moves to the NL for the first time, as he signed a one-year deal with the Giants. Huff is coming off arguably the worst full-season effort of his career, but he still knocked in nine more runs than Branyan. The extra 100 at-bats certainly helped there. Unlike Branyan, Huff has no injury concerns and will be in the lineup every day at first base since he can handle pitchers who throw left-handed (.272/.323/.420 in his career) and, frankly, the Giants have no other options.

Huff hit .241 last season - a career worst. You can blame a terrible 15.5 LD-rate (his career mark is 18.1 percent), and his hit rate fell to a career-worst .260 (his career mark is .292, a level that he has exceeded in four of the last seven seasons). That doesn't figure to repeat this season, and even if something like this perfect storm does occur, don't forget that Huff's .241 mark last season is still better than the .234 mark that Branyan owns in his career. As for his power stroke, it is fair to say he will play in a difficult park for homers Park Factors, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't count on a return to the 20-homer level this season. After all, Huff produced his career flyball rate of just over 36 percent last season, a fact lost because his HR/F rate was just 9.1 percent, well below his career 13.7 percent mark.

Whose Side?: Given his spot in the everyday lineup, his health, and his track record, Huff is not only the safer option but the better value in 2010. Don't forget that Huff hit .304-32-108 in 2008. He isn't going to match that effort, but those that argue that Branyan has more upside might do well to remember that fact.


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