Impact Report: Beanie Wells
INTRO
When the Cardinals drafted Beanie Wells 31st overall out of Ohio State in 2009, there were questions about his durability, his timeshare with Tim Hightower and his opportunity for carries on a pass-first team. After staying healthy for a full slate and topping Hightower in carries, yards and red-zone touches the first two questions were answered. With the retirement of Kurt Warner, the face of the team looks to be changing and the formerly air-happy Cards look poised to get a little more grounded. Wells' late-season emergence (106 carries, 483 yards, and 6 touchdowns over his last 8 regular season games) along with the switch to Matt Leinart at quarterback have many owners excited about Wells and his ability to become a top fantasy back in 2010.
NFL CAREER
TEAM SCENARIO
Coming off a heartbreaking Super Bowl loss, the 2009 Cardinals were widely considered a candidate to follow the recent trend of Super Bowl losers to miss the playoffs. Ken Whisenhunt's squad had different ideas as they went 10-6, won the NFC West and won an offensive showdown against the Packers in the Wild Card round. This offseason, arguably no team has changed more than the Cardinals starting with the retirement of Kurt Warner. After as un-Favreian a flirtation imaginable, Warner announced he will hang them up and Matt Leinart is now assumed to be the heir apparent. When Whisenhunt first came to Arizona in 2007, the thought was that Leinart would become the starter and allow Whisenhunt to install the power running offense he was known for in Pittsburgh. In three years as Steelers' offensive coordinator, Whisenhunt turned a team that that rushed only 446 times and averaged 3.3ypc into a team that averaged 545 attempts over three years with 4.1ypc. In Arizona, however, Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin comprised the core of a team built for the pass.
Quietly, however, Whisenhunt has been preparing for this eventuality since he first joined Arizona. The Cards spent high draft picks (and turned some heads) on Levi Brown and Deuce Lutui, a talented young pair intended to protect the southpaw Leinart's blindside. More importantly, the selection of Wells, a big power back, gave the Cards the runner they needed to complete the transition. Now with Leinart at the helm, the day has come for the plan to be executed.
Gone too is Anquan Boldin, the disgruntled, oft injured, but highly talented receiver will be replaced by a tandem of Steve Breaston and Early Doucet, who proved through several Boldin injuries in 2009 to be worthy of the task. In the backfield, Tim Hightower returns to split carries with Wells and once again serve as the third-down back and a safety valve for Leinart with his superior pass-catching abilities.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Cardinals have also undergone a major facelift. Key contributors Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle are gone with Kerry Rhodes, a downgrade at safety replacing Rolle. The defense is headlined by powerful forces up-front Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett, who tallied seven sacks each in 2009, along with versatile safety Adrian Wilson and star cornerback in the making Dominique Rogers-Cromartie. That squad will look to build on a season in which it ranked 14th in scoring defense, 17th against the run and 23rd against the pass. The major question mark remaining is at the linebacker position where they will likely look to the draft to replace the departed Dansby and Chike Okeafor.
2010 UPSIDE
Many believe Wells' time to become a star fantasy performer is now in Arizona. His clear outperformance of Hightower coupled with Hightower's fumbling problems signal an increased workload for Beanie in 2010. Wells leveraged his size in 2009 to dominate in the redzone, averaging 4.5 ypc compared to Hightower's 2.5 inside the 20 and will serve as the primary back in those situations. With Leinart under center, the Cards are also likely to check down more often meaning a slight uptick in receptions for Wells is possible, though it has never been his strength. Wells received 55 percent of the team's carries amongst running backs last year and the 328 total attempts are likely to increase as the team's philosophy shifts. It's conceivable that Wells could see closer to 250 carries and if he can maintain his average would approach 1,200 yards. Add in the touchdowns where 15 or more is a possibility and Beanie will nearly be a top-10 back.
2010 DOWNSIDE
A healthy 2009 doesn't erase memories of the litany of injuries Wells suffered in college. An increased workload going forward could threaten his tenuous streak of games played. In PPR leagues, Wells will still lag behind other backs as receiving is a part of his game he needs to improve upon. The Cards might experience growing pains transitioning to more of a run-heavy offense as new assignments for the offensive line could test the still developing unit. If Leinart struggles, teams will load the box against the run. As a result, a drop in productivity could offset Wells' increased workload. Lastly, if the defense can't overcome its losses and the Cards are often playing from behind, Hightower could cut into Wells' playing time in more frequent passing situations.
OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
With so many question marks it'd be easy to write off Wells as a risky choice and ignore the upside, but the overall makeup of the Cardinals helps to minimize the risk. With one of the best receiving corps in the league (even without Boldin) and a young but very talented offensive line, the offense has very few question marks outside of Leinart. This will allow a franchise that has been very smart in recent years to focus on filling holes on the defense this offseason. In what is again likely to be a weak NFC West, the Cardinals should perform well and the opportunity to shine will be there for Wells. In spite of suffering several injuries at Ohio State, Wells is a gamer. He missed only three games in three years and had fewer than 10 carries only once as a starter. All these factors mean the transition to a run-heavy (and Beanie-heavy) offense could be smoother than feared and Wells has a good chance to approach his upside. If he stays healthy, 225 carries is a safe assumption and 1,000 yards should be no problem, but Wells' real value comes in his ability to find the endzone. Wells is currently projecting as a late-third or early-fourth round pick in standard leagues meaning owners are expecting him to perform as an RB2. With so many backs falling prey to the committee trend, Wells' superior ability to score makes that a good projection and with a few good breaks, he could exceed expectations. In PPR leagues Wells' value takes a minor hit but in standard scoring and keeper leagues, he remains a prime target.
This article is a free preview of some of the content we are rolling out during the offseason. To continue to receive the most comprehensive Fantasy Football information and tools on the web, click here to subscribe to Owner's Edge NFL premium package.
When the Cardinals drafted Beanie Wells 31st overall out of Ohio State in 2009, there were questions about his durability, his timeshare with Tim Hightower and his opportunity for carries on a pass-first team. After staying healthy for a full slate and topping Hightower in carries, yards and red-zone touches the first two questions were answered. With the retirement of Kurt Warner, the face of the team looks to be changing and the formerly air-happy Cards look poised to get a little more grounded. Wells' late-season emergence (106 carries, 483 yards, and 6 touchdowns over his last 8 regular season games) along with the switch to Matt Leinart at quarterback have many owners excited about Wells and his ability to become a top fantasy back in 2010.
NFL CAREER
| Season | Games | Games Started | Carries | Rushing Yards | YPC | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 18 | 0 | 195 | 891 | 4.6 | 8 |
| Season | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 12 | 143 | 0 |
TEAM SCENARIO
In the final eight games of 2009, RB Beanie Wells compiled 106 carries for 483 yards and six touchdowns.
Quietly, however, Whisenhunt has been preparing for this eventuality since he first joined Arizona. The Cards spent high draft picks (and turned some heads) on Levi Brown and Deuce Lutui, a talented young pair intended to protect the southpaw Leinart's blindside. More importantly, the selection of Wells, a big power back, gave the Cards the runner they needed to complete the transition. Now with Leinart at the helm, the day has come for the plan to be executed.
Gone too is Anquan Boldin, the disgruntled, oft injured, but highly talented receiver will be replaced by a tandem of Steve Breaston and Early Doucet, who proved through several Boldin injuries in 2009 to be worthy of the task. In the backfield, Tim Hightower returns to split carries with Wells and once again serve as the third-down back and a safety valve for Leinart with his superior pass-catching abilities.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Cardinals have also undergone a major facelift. Key contributors Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle are gone with Kerry Rhodes, a downgrade at safety replacing Rolle. The defense is headlined by powerful forces up-front Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett, who tallied seven sacks each in 2009, along with versatile safety Adrian Wilson and star cornerback in the making Dominique Rogers-Cromartie. That squad will look to build on a season in which it ranked 14th in scoring defense, 17th against the run and 23rd against the pass. The major question mark remaining is at the linebacker position where they will likely look to the draft to replace the departed Dansby and Chike Okeafor.
2010 UPSIDE
Many believe Wells' time to become a star fantasy performer is now in Arizona. His clear outperformance of Hightower coupled with Hightower's fumbling problems signal an increased workload for Beanie in 2010. Wells leveraged his size in 2009 to dominate in the redzone, averaging 4.5 ypc compared to Hightower's 2.5 inside the 20 and will serve as the primary back in those situations. With Leinart under center, the Cards are also likely to check down more often meaning a slight uptick in receptions for Wells is possible, though it has never been his strength. Wells received 55 percent of the team's carries amongst running backs last year and the 328 total attempts are likely to increase as the team's philosophy shifts. It's conceivable that Wells could see closer to 250 carries and if he can maintain his average would approach 1,200 yards. Add in the touchdowns where 15 or more is a possibility and Beanie will nearly be a top-10 back.
2010 DOWNSIDE
A healthy 2009 doesn't erase memories of the litany of injuries Wells suffered in college. An increased workload going forward could threaten his tenuous streak of games played. In PPR leagues, Wells will still lag behind other backs as receiving is a part of his game he needs to improve upon. The Cards might experience growing pains transitioning to more of a run-heavy offense as new assignments for the offensive line could test the still developing unit. If Leinart struggles, teams will load the box against the run. As a result, a drop in productivity could offset Wells' increased workload. Lastly, if the defense can't overcome its losses and the Cards are often playing from behind, Hightower could cut into Wells' playing time in more frequent passing situations.
OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
With so many question marks it'd be easy to write off Wells as a risky choice and ignore the upside, but the overall makeup of the Cardinals helps to minimize the risk. With one of the best receiving corps in the league (even without Boldin) and a young but very talented offensive line, the offense has very few question marks outside of Leinart. This will allow a franchise that has been very smart in recent years to focus on filling holes on the defense this offseason. In what is again likely to be a weak NFC West, the Cardinals should perform well and the opportunity to shine will be there for Wells. In spite of suffering several injuries at Ohio State, Wells is a gamer. He missed only three games in three years and had fewer than 10 carries only once as a starter. All these factors mean the transition to a run-heavy (and Beanie-heavy) offense could be smoother than feared and Wells has a good chance to approach his upside. If he stays healthy, 225 carries is a safe assumption and 1,000 yards should be no problem, but Wells' real value comes in his ability to find the endzone. Wells is currently projecting as a late-third or early-fourth round pick in standard leagues meaning owners are expecting him to perform as an RB2. With so many backs falling prey to the committee trend, Wells' superior ability to score makes that a good projection and with a few good breaks, he could exceed expectations. In PPR leagues Wells' value takes a minor hit but in standard scoring and keeper leagues, he remains a prime target.
This article is a free preview of some of the content we are rolling out during the offseason. To continue to receive the most comprehensive Fantasy Football information and tools on the web, click here to subscribe to Owner's Edge NFL premium package.
