Farm Fresh: Jason Heyward

By Jason Collette
March 10, 2010 11:44am CST


Just over three years ago, I wrote an article at RotoJunkie where I warned about the dangers of Alex Gordon and the hype he was receiving heading into the 2007 season. Gordon was coming off a Double-A season in 2006 in which he hit .325 with a 1.001 OPS in the Texas League and that was enough to convince the Royals to skip Gordon right over Triple-A and hand him the major league third base job for the 2007 season. The table below was referenced in that article and I've included his actual 2007 numbers on that table now:

Level AB AVG OPS BB% K% BB/K
MLE 487 .267 .810 9% 27% 0.38
ZIPs 491 .275 .822 10% 28% 0.41
Actual 543 .247 .725 7% 25% 0.30

You might recall just how heavily hyped Gordon was coming into the 2007 season, as he was ranked No. 1 on just about every prospect list known to man. Some had lofty predictions for him, as did others, and most had him pegged with the Rookie of the Year award. Other praise included write-ups such as:

Look for the youngster to make an impact right away, as he has all the tools necessary to succeed in the majors. I can see Gordon easily putting up similar numbers in 2007 that he did last season in the minors: 20-25 homers with 20-25 steals isn't out of the question along with a .290 or so average. The Royals hope to build around Gordon along with their core of young players currently on the team and with some of the other top prospects they have on their way up through the minors. Gordon is exactly the type of player the Royals organization has been starving for to help turn around their ball club.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus did a piece last year that reviewed why Gordon failed in 2007. In it, he mentioned a scout who was concerned that Gordon was rushed and asked, "How many really good players can you name who had less than 500 at-bats in the minors?" Goldstein went back and looked at all college players that had been taken in the first 10 rounds since 200 and how many minor league plate appearances they had before their promotion and the chart contains:

  • Gordon Beckham - 259
  • Ryan Zimmerman - 296
  • Mark Teixeira - 383
  • Alex Gordon - 576
  • Troy Tulowitzki - 590
  • Matt Wieters - 693
  • Matt LaPorta - 815
  • Ryan Braun - 864
  • Evan Longoria - 881
  • Rickie Weeks - 909


    • Beckham, Zimmerman, and Teixeira are the exception to the scout's inquiry, but there is really nothing different from those hitters and Gordon at the collegiate level, as they were all fantastic college players. However, it is rather surprising to see how many appearances Braun and Longoria got before their promotions considering how well they did right out of the gate once they were promoted. Keep in mind; those numbers do not include collegiate at-bats.

    Jason Heyward will surely be a star, but will it happen in 2010?
    I bring this up because the Jason Heyward hype is growing out of control in the Grapefruit League. He is breaking car windows in batting practice and just yesterday on the radio, I heard former Braves player and current broadcaster Brian Jordan call Heyward the LeBron James of baseball in terms of body type. How many minor league plate appearances does he have? How about 1,003 across three seasons? In his career, he has hit .318/.391/.508 while playing just 50 games above High-A ball. The last person that had such little high level minor league experience to jump to the majors like this would be Albert Pujols. In his minor league career, Heyward has a 11% walk rate and a 16% strikeout rate, but has only hit 29 homers in 876 at-bats. That might scare off some until you consider two factors. First, Heyward played nearly the entire 2009 season as a 19-year-old with time split between High- and Double-A. Secondly, the park in High-A Myrtle Beach is where home runs go to die for hitters and is a dream of a park for pitchers. I took some video of Heyward at spring training and when I posted it on Twitter the following day, a guy who had scouted Heyward the previous season could not believe how much he had filled out in his lower half in just a year.

    What do the MLE's and projections say about Hewyard for 2010?

    Level AB AVG OPS BB% K% BB/K
    MLE 387 .256 .747 9% 15% 0.66
    Bill James 542 .303 .846 15% 18% 1.00
    Rest 472 .277 .799 10% 15% 0.75

    Now, let's compare Heyward's lines to what was being projected for Gordon at this time, three years ago.

    Level AB AVG OPS BB% K% BB/K
    Gordon MiLB 486 .325 1.001 13% 23% 0.64
    Heyward MiLB 362 .323 .962 12% 14% 1.00
    Gordon MLE 487 .267 .810 9% 27% 0.38
    Heyward MLE 387 .256 .747 9% 15% 0.66
    Gordon Proj 491 .275 .822 10% 28% 0.41
    Heyward Proj 472 .277 .799 10% 15% 0.75

    In 2007, Gordon's ADP in 2,815 mixed mock drafts at MockDraftCentral was 195 because people knew he was going to be handed the third base job. Right now, Heyward's March ADP is just 228, but even without a guaranteed job to start the season, he his going in front of Mike Cameron, Franklin Gutierrez, J.D. Drew, and Nick Swisher. Compare that to his February ADP of 283 and he has jumped 55 spots since the noise of the Grapefruit League started.

    Is Heyward going to be a special player? Without a doubt. That said, we've clearly been down this road before and for every Dan Uggla, Ryan Zimmerman, and Hanley Ramirez that can skip Triple-A and not miss a beat at the major league level, we have an Alex Gordon and Jeremy Hermida to give us doubt. Pursue Heyward, but do not go nuts and temper your expectations. He may win Rookie of the Year, but at the rate his spring training hype is going, he will have to win that award not to avoid being considered a disappointment.
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