Breaking Down: Alfonso Soriano

By Ray Flowers
March 12, 2010 5:46pm CST


2009 REVIEW - ALFONSO SORIANO
.241-20-55-64-9 in 477 at-bats

There's no sugar coating it. 2009 was Soriano's worst season since becoming a regular major league contributor in 2001. Each of his 5x5 numbers were full season worst's other than the home run category since he hit 18 homers as a rookie in 2001. Soriano was hampered by a knee issue last season which limited him to a second straight season of less than 480 at-bats, this after 7-straight years of at least 574. Soriano had his knee operated on during the offseason, and reports are positive that things are moving in the right direction with his wheel, though he still isn't at 100 percent (he and the team believe he will be pretty close to that number by opening day). If healthy, can Soriano recapture his past glory?


THE GOOD

Through all the down of 2009 (injuries, age, skills slippage etc.), Soriano still went deep 20 times. That may not seem like much, and honestly it's a pretty standard total for an outfielder in the fantasy game, but it still was an eighth straight year reaching that level for Soriano, and only six others in the game are in that group (Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, Carlos Lee and Alex Rodriguez).

What else is "good" with Soriano?

This is at the heart of everything when discussing Soriano. What was the reason for last years' failures? Soriano is aging, though he is still at age (34) where he shouldn't see a drastic fall off because of a loss of physical skills. At the same time, his let er' rip if the ball is in the air approach clearly isn't one that plays well as a player ages. I could make an argument as to why Soriano should be fine in 2010, and maybe I'd be right in taking that position, but the fact of the matter is that Soriano has seen a dip in his production the past two years while at the same time seeing some slight slippage in his skill set. Given those facts, I probably should have deviated from my traditional approach in this piece and written more of a running dialogue vs. a two part analysis, but I'm a stickler for consistency, so here is the same old format even though "the Bad" section is much more substantial.


THE BAD

This is a fairly substantial list for a guy who has been a fantasy star for about a decade.

Soriano has become somewhat brittle as he has aged. Five times in six years from 2001-06, Soriano appeared in 156 or more games. The last three years he hasn't gotten close with seasons of 135, 109 and 117. It might be a bit premature to call this a pattern, but at the same time it certainly has the appearance of a disheartening trend.

What can we expect from Alfonso Soriano this season?
As a result of age and the onset of physical concerns, Soriano is no longer a base stealing threat. From 2001-06 Soriano stole at least 30 bases five times. In the last three years he only has a total of 47 thefts. Last season he swiped a mere nine bags, and given that he was caught only twice, its clear that he basically just stopped running to protect his legs. In fact, here are his steal attempt totals the past four years which clearly show that he is no longer using the steal as a major part of his arsenal: 58, 25, 22 and 11. Yeah, the steals aren't coming back, and with that a good portion of his fantasy value is likely gone.

Long a strikeout prone batter, Soriano struck out 24.7 percent of the time last year tying his highest mark since a 50 at-bat 2000 effort. As a result of the strikeouts he posted a ninth straight season with a BB/K mark under 0.50 (it was 0.34). Obviously he has had success at this level his whole career, but as he ages the lack of plate discipline will grow in importance given the inevitable physical decline.

Soriano has always been a fly ball hitter, and last season he exceeded his career 47 percent mark with a 48.2 percent total of fly balls. That's well within the realm of expected, but unfortunately his ability to convert those fly balls into bleacher reachers was severely limited in 2009. Not only did Soriano post the worst HR/F ratio of his career at 11.5 percent (career 15.3), it was his first season under 14.8 percent since 2004. Was last year and its failures a result of injury, age or skills erosion? It might have been a little bit of all three.

Soriano's batting average was awful last season, though little in what I've reviewed explains the precipitous fall that it took in 2010. Still, it can be explained at least in part by an 18.8 percent line drive rate, a career worst, and a .279 BABIP, another career worst. An argument can certainly be put forward that he is healthy his average should improve, though it is tough to tell just how much of a rebound we'll see. Don't forget Soriano only owns a .278 career batting average, so its not like he is a force in that category.


MOVING FORWARD
Current ADP: 84
Bobby Abreu (77), Hunter Pence (85), Andrew McCutchen (88)

Soriano appears likely to bat sixth, at least at the start of the year, and while some might look at that with a jaundiced eye, the truth is that Soriano has never really had the skills to be a leadoff hitter. Sure he could run like one at one point, but no one who owns a .326 OBP in his career should be at the top of the lineup, especially when the league average for OBP during said hitter's career is .337. Truthfully, Soriano has always been a five hole hitter with speed, so the drop to 6th to start the year after his poor work last season makes sense. "I'd like to keep him there, unless he swings the bat exceedingly well here in the spring and we'll sneak him into the fifth hole," said manager Lou Pinella. "If not, the sixth hole is a good place for him, a good RBI spot." The way the order appears likely to play out could be like this for the 3-6 spots: Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Marlon Byrd and Soriano.

So where does all of this leave us? Given the three consecutive seasons of declining health and his growing inability to take the field every day, Soriano's value is somewhat capped. Throw in a body that appears unable to take advantage of pitchers on the bases like it once did, and don't forget he is coming back from knee surgery, his once near elite speed is likely gone leaving us with a player whose skill set very closely resembles the man who is going in drafts right after him in Hunter Pence. The difference between the two is that Pence is 27 years old (to read more about that "magic" age and how it might effect Pence give
27-Year-Olds: Hitters a read) and would seem to have some room for future growth. Ask yourself this - do you want the guy who is nearly at the peak of the mountain, or do you want the guy who is rolling his way down the other side after slipping on a stone at the top?

Soriano could hit 30 homers and drive in 90 runs for the Cubs this season, though he could just as easily hit 25 with 70. Given the loss of his wheels on the bases a return to even the 20-steal plateau seems unlikely, and as I detailed, Alfonso has never been great shakes in the batting average category. Devoid of his ability to separate from the field as he once did, he very well could disappoint given his current ADP spot. Maybe he comes out of spring and his knee is healthy and he returns to prominence, but that risk is likely one that you will be better off letting someone else pay for on draft day if you have to take him in the top-85.


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