Breaking Down: Marcus Thames/Randy Winn
The Yankees signed Marcus Thames to a deal worth $900,000 if he makes the big league club (the deal is technically of the minor league contract). Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated also reported that the deal for Randy Winn was also finally ratified, though for only $1.1 million dollars, which is about $900K less than Winn's deal as originally reported. Therefore, the Bronx Bombers ended up adding both players for the cost of what it was originally reported that Winn was inked for. What is the outlook for both players, and the Yankees outfield, in 2010?
* I already touched on the Yankees' addition of Nick Johnson this offseason in
Breaking Down: Nick Johnson for those of you who want to get a better feel of what the Yankees have done to partially reshape their offense.
2009 REVIEW - MARCUS THAMES
.252-13-36-33-0 in 258 at-bats
The 33-year-old Thames spent 2004-2009 as a member of the Tigers. Last season he posted just 258 at-bats, his lowest total since 2005, as he missed about two months with a rib injury. As a result, he posted his worst power numbers since that same 2005 season.
THE GOOD
The man has got some sock in his stick. From 2006-2008 Thames reached 25 homers twice and averaged 23 homers a year. Those numbers may not sound like much until you consider that he didn't even reach 350 at-bats in any of the three seasons. In fact, per 100 plate appearances in those three seasons, there wasn't a batter in the American League, not a single one, who was more proficient at hitting the long ball. Moreover, his 6.79 HR/PA mark was second in baseball behind only Ryan Howard's 7.46 mark (min 750 plate appearances). Thames was the only player in baseball those three seasons to hit 18 or more homers with 54 or more RBI each season with fewer than 350 at-bats each year.
THE BAD
So the Tigers must have been crazy not to play him more often right? Well, not really. Thames hit a mere .247 in that time (2006-08) with a pathetic .304 OBP as his BB/K mark was atrocious at 0.29. Socking long balls is great, but when it's all you really do you shouldn't be surprised to look at the lineup card and not find your name penciled in every day. Add in the fact that he has three steals in his entire career, and that he isn't any good with the leather, and it's really no surprise that his playing time was continually curtailed.
2009 REVIEW - RANDY WINN
.262-2-51-65-16 in 538 at-bats
Randy Winn is coming off his worst season since becoming a full-time player in 2001. Winn's struggles with the Giants can be tied directly to his total inability to hit left-handed pitching last season (.158 in 120 at-bats) and a career worst HR/F rate of 1.4 percent.
THE GOOD
There is no way that his 1.4 percent HR/F mark doesn't rebound to around six percent, the mark he had hit in each of the previous seven seasons. That said, he isn't a homer threat. At the same time, there are still some positives here. First, Winn actually produced the best LD-rate of his career (22.3 percent) despite his worst batting mark since becoming a full-time player. That make sense to you? Me neither. Obviously he has room for growth in the batting average and homer categories, though it might be more mild than anything else. As for the speed, that is a bit trickier. Winn has always been an effective base stealer, in fact he has been caught 15 times the past four years while swiping 56 bases (to compare Chone Figgins had 42 steals and was caught 17 times last season). Winn will continue to run, and do so quite effectively, though it should be pointed out that he has eclipsed 20 thefts only once in the past five seasons.
THE BAD
Though his 1.42 G/F is still solid for a player with his skills, that mark does represent a career worst total for Winn. That's something that will need to turn itself around as he simply cannot survive hitting the ball in the air even with the beneficial effects of Yankee Stadium to back him up. In addition, Winn had his worst BB.K mark (0.51) since 2003 thanks to his worst K-rate in that time. It was only 17.3 percent, just one percent above his career mark, but after being below 15 percent in each of the previous four seasons, it was a pretty poor showing for the aging Winn (36 in June). I also mentioned above how his work against lefties caved to historically putrid levels (you'll have to look pretty hard to find a guy with an OPS of worse than .384 in more than 100 at-bats against lefty pitching in a season). He has never been that bad against lefties, in fact his numbers against them (.280/.332/.406) are almost identical to those against righties in his career (.288/.349/.415), but it was so bad last season that red flags are a waving everywhere.
MOVING FORWARD
Even without Johnny Damon, the Yankees have a bunch of bats to turn to in the outfield and at DH. They are set around the infield with Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Ostensibly the club signed Nick Johnson to fill the DH role, so let's assume that is the everyday lineup. Curtis Granderson will play center field every day, and you have to think that Nick Swisher will see a lot of time in right field after going deep 29 times with 82 RBI and 84 runs last season. That being the case, we would then be talking about Thames, Winn and Brett Gardner battling for time in left field and as a potential DH option when, I mean if, Johnson is injured.
Thames really cannot field, he never has been great out there, so he doesn't figure to see too much time in the field. However, he has been very successful smashing left-handed pitching as his .854 OPS in such situations clearly shows (that mark dips to .764 against righties). Problem is, Johnson owns a .292 batting average and .863 OPS against lefties in his career, so it's not like he'll need a platoon mate against southpaws at the DH spot. If Johnson somehow stays healthy, Thames will likely have to beat out Winn and Gardner for time in the field, and that doesn't appear likely to occur.
Winn plays excellent defense at all three outfield spots, and he is a veteran presence who also brings some speed on the bases. In fact, if he repeats last year's performance there isn't much difference in his skill set and that of Gardner. Winn has been there and done that, and you know managers like that a lot, but Gardner is the more capable base stealing threat at the moment. What neither player does well is bash the ball deep, Thames' calling card, but it's not like the Yankees lack pop through their lineup.
To sum it up the situation, here is what I see.
Thames will be asked to come off the bench with his power right-handed bat. He'll see some starts against left-handed pitching, and potentially spell Johnson at DH, but his ceiling would appear to be minimal. Ditto for Winn who likely will give way to the younger, faster Gardner on many days. What the Yankees have done is what good teams do - they have given themselves a plethora of options to turn to based upon the matchups. However, in terms of the fantasy game, this uncertainty is death and renders Thames, Winn and Gardner as nothing more than AL-only plays at the moment - at least until we get some clarification as to what the club intends to do each man in 2010.
* I already touched on the Yankees' addition of Nick Johnson this offseason in
Breaking Down: Nick Johnson for those of you who want to get a better feel of what the Yankees have done to partially reshape their offense.
2009 REVIEW - MARCUS THAMES
.252-13-36-33-0 in 258 at-bats
The 33-year-old Thames spent 2004-2009 as a member of the Tigers. Last season he posted just 258 at-bats, his lowest total since 2005, as he missed about two months with a rib injury. As a result, he posted his worst power numbers since that same 2005 season.
THE GOOD
Marcus Thames should be in the lineup consistently against left-handers.
THE BAD
So the Tigers must have been crazy not to play him more often right? Well, not really. Thames hit a mere .247 in that time (2006-08) with a pathetic .304 OBP as his BB/K mark was atrocious at 0.29. Socking long balls is great, but when it's all you really do you shouldn't be surprised to look at the lineup card and not find your name penciled in every day. Add in the fact that he has three steals in his entire career, and that he isn't any good with the leather, and it's really no surprise that his playing time was continually curtailed.
2009 REVIEW - RANDY WINN
.262-2-51-65-16 in 538 at-bats
Randy Winn is coming off his worst season since becoming a full-time player in 2001. Winn's struggles with the Giants can be tied directly to his total inability to hit left-handed pitching last season (.158 in 120 at-bats) and a career worst HR/F rate of 1.4 percent.
THE GOOD
There is no way that his 1.4 percent HR/F mark doesn't rebound to around six percent, the mark he had hit in each of the previous seven seasons. That said, he isn't a homer threat. At the same time, there are still some positives here. First, Winn actually produced the best LD-rate of his career (22.3 percent) despite his worst batting mark since becoming a full-time player. That make sense to you? Me neither. Obviously he has room for growth in the batting average and homer categories, though it might be more mild than anything else. As for the speed, that is a bit trickier. Winn has always been an effective base stealer, in fact he has been caught 15 times the past four years while swiping 56 bases (to compare Chone Figgins had 42 steals and was caught 17 times last season). Winn will continue to run, and do so quite effectively, though it should be pointed out that he has eclipsed 20 thefts only once in the past five seasons.
THE BAD
Though his 1.42 G/F is still solid for a player with his skills, that mark does represent a career worst total for Winn. That's something that will need to turn itself around as he simply cannot survive hitting the ball in the air even with the beneficial effects of Yankee Stadium to back him up. In addition, Winn had his worst BB.K mark (0.51) since 2003 thanks to his worst K-rate in that time. It was only 17.3 percent, just one percent above his career mark, but after being below 15 percent in each of the previous four seasons, it was a pretty poor showing for the aging Winn (36 in June). I also mentioned above how his work against lefties caved to historically putrid levels (you'll have to look pretty hard to find a guy with an OPS of worse than .384 in more than 100 at-bats against lefty pitching in a season). He has never been that bad against lefties, in fact his numbers against them (.280/.332/.406) are almost identical to those against righties in his career (.288/.349/.415), but it was so bad last season that red flags are a waving everywhere.
MOVING FORWARD
Even without Johnny Damon, the Yankees have a bunch of bats to turn to in the outfield and at DH. They are set around the infield with Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Ostensibly the club signed Nick Johnson to fill the DH role, so let's assume that is the everyday lineup. Curtis Granderson will play center field every day, and you have to think that Nick Swisher will see a lot of time in right field after going deep 29 times with 82 RBI and 84 runs last season. That being the case, we would then be talking about Thames, Winn and Brett Gardner battling for time in left field and as a potential DH option when, I mean if, Johnson is injured.
Thames really cannot field, he never has been great out there, so he doesn't figure to see too much time in the field. However, he has been very successful smashing left-handed pitching as his .854 OPS in such situations clearly shows (that mark dips to .764 against righties). Problem is, Johnson owns a .292 batting average and .863 OPS against lefties in his career, so it's not like he'll need a platoon mate against southpaws at the DH spot. If Johnson somehow stays healthy, Thames will likely have to beat out Winn and Gardner for time in the field, and that doesn't appear likely to occur.
Winn plays excellent defense at all three outfield spots, and he is a veteran presence who also brings some speed on the bases. In fact, if he repeats last year's performance there isn't much difference in his skill set and that of Gardner. Winn has been there and done that, and you know managers like that a lot, but Gardner is the more capable base stealing threat at the moment. What neither player does well is bash the ball deep, Thames' calling card, but it's not like the Yankees lack pop through their lineup.
To sum it up the situation, here is what I see.
Thames will be asked to come off the bench with his power right-handed bat. He'll see some starts against left-handed pitching, and potentially spell Johnson at DH, but his ceiling would appear to be minimal. Ditto for Winn who likely will give way to the younger, faster Gardner on many days. What the Yankees have done is what good teams do - they have given themselves a plethora of options to turn to based upon the matchups. However, in terms of the fantasy game, this uncertainty is death and renders Thames, Winn and Gardner as nothing more than AL-only plays at the moment - at least until we get some clarification as to what the club intends to do each man in 2010.
