Breaking Down: Gregg/Frasor/Downs
2009 REVIEW
Kevin Gregg: 5-6, 4.72 ERA, 71 Ks, 1.31 WHIP with 23 saves in 68.2 IP (with Cubs)
Scott Downs: 1-3, 3.09 ERA, 43 Ks, 1.26 WHIP with 9 saves in 46.2 IP
Jason Frasor: 7-3, 2.50 ERA, 56 Ks, 1.02 WHIP with 11 saves in 57.2 IP
All three hurlers had success last season, and at different points all were asked to fill the role of closer. Gregg did so early in the year before finally seeding his spot to Carlos Marmol late (you can read more about Marmol and his 2010 outlook in Breaking Down: Carlos Marmol), and Downs held down the role for a while early in the year before he was injured which opened the door for Frasor to step through as he led the club with an atrocious total of 11.
What is the outlook for all three heading into 2010? I'm so glad you asked.
KEVIN GREGG
THE GOOD
He has been there and done that, and we all know how managers love to use guys in roles in which they have previously had success in. Of course I speak of the fact that Gregg has filled the role of closer for large portions of each of the past three seasons. In fact, as hard as it is to believe, he is one of just nine men who has posted at least 23 saves in each of the last three years.
Greg is a better strikeout artist than you likely think. His career mark is 8.26 per nine innings, and last year his 9.31 mark was better than the likes of Grant Balfour (9.22) and Ryan Madson (9.08) to name just a few. He does post the punchouts at a strong clip.
In terms of luck, Gregg didn't have much of it last season. Despite a career 0.94 HR/9 mark his rate skyrocketed to 1.70 last season as he led all relievers with 13 homers allowed. Given that his 8.5 percent career HR/F rate was nearly doubled last season at 15.3 percent, you would have to think a regression is coming, and that should help to stabilize his ERA.
Finally, Gregg posted the best BB/9 mark in three years last season. Though the mark was still below "average" at 3.93, the fact that he cut nearly a full batter off his 2008 rate is encouraging.
THE BAD
He walks too many batters as his 3.65 BB/9 mark is worse than the league average of 3.31 during his career. You need a lot of strikeouts to overcome this poor showing in the K-department or base runners can pile up in a hurry.
Secondly, and perhaps most telling here, Gregg has struggled in the second half of the season the past few years. Here are his second half totals the past three seasons.
2007: 4.32 ERA 1.26 WHIP, 2.73 K/BB
2008: 4.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.20 K/BB
2009: 6.75 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.14 K/BB
Last year was particularly worrisome as he allowed 18 earned runs in 20.1 innings to close out the year (a 7.97 ERA). He had an issue with his rib cage, but still, the late seasons fades are a growing concern with the aging Gregg (he'll be 32 in June).
SCOTT DOWNS
THE GOOD
Downs had a couple of starts and stops last season because of injury, but he still produced a third straight year of extremely solid work out of the bullpen. Moreover, there haven't been too many hurlers in the game who have been better the past three years. Here is how Downs stacks up against all hurlers who have made at least 150 appearances in that timeframe.
2.26 ERA - the 7th best mark in baseball
11.19 base runners per nine innings - 25th in baseball
Yeah, that ain't half bad is it?
Downs is also dynamite against lefties holding them to a .232 batting average in his career while he has posted a 1.19 WHIP and a 8.29 K/9 mark in such situations.
In addition, Downs is rarely beaten by the long ball as he continually forces batters to beat the ball into the turf. In his career he owns an impressive 2.28 G/F ratio, a number he has bettered in each of the past three seasons (2.68, 2.93 and 2.36). You can have a whole lot of success keeping the ball on the ground while at the same time possessing swing and miss stuff, so it's no surprise at all that Downs has excelled.
THE BAD
With all that success against lefties it's a bit surprising to see him have some struggles against righties. Downs owns a 1.49 WHIP while facing righties, a terrible number really, and things down get any better in the K/BB category (1.76). The inability to produce top quality work against hitters from both sides of the plate is a concern for a guy with closing aspirations.
Downs has also had a tough time in his career while pitching on the road (he must love the home cooking). While his ratios in Toronto are solid (3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), his numbers when away look like something that a rookie trying to hold on to a roster spot would offer (4.94 ERA, 1.67 WHIP).
JASON FRASOR
THE GOOD
Not only did Frasor vulture seven victories, he also posted 11 saves last season, and only he, J.P. Howell and Jonathan Broxton reached both of those totals. Of course wins are pretty much pure luck, especially for relievers, but it was still a great bonus for those that grabbed Frasor off waivers last season.
How was Frasor so successful last season? Simply put he threw strikes. His 8.74 K/9 mark was strong and slightly elevated over his 8.21 career mark, but the main difference that allowed him to post a career best 3.50 K/BB mark was the reduction of walks. After waling an unconscionable 6.08 batters per nine innings in 2008, Frasor cut more than 50 percent off that total with a career best 2.50 mark (career 3.85). When you throw strikes, success usually follows.
Frasor was also dominating at home in his 31 appearances posting a 1.45 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP as he held batters to a mere .179 BAA. In addition, he was extremely consistent posting nearly identical ratios in the first (2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and second (2.55 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) half.
THE BAD
As great as Frasor was, he was so much better last season than previously that the specter of a "career season" must be raised. I already detailed the massive curtailing of the his walk rate, so there is a concern of some regression there. You would also be wise to pay attention to the fact that for the first time in four years his ERA was below 4.18. Not just that, his Fielder Independent Pitching mark was 2.99, nearly a full run below his career mark of 3.80 which would seem to indicate that this ERA was far too low. This position is further supported by his 79.4 percent LOB mark, a full six percent clear of his career level.
In addition, Frasor saw a solid G/F rate dip, substantially, in 2009. After a run of 4-straight years with a mark of at least 1.22 it dipped to 0.88 last year as he allowed a 43.4 percent FB-rate, almost six percent higher than ever before. Luckily he posted a HR/F rate that was 25 percent below his career mark, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out that if he allows that many fly balls again that he will likely fall victim to more than the four homers he allowed last season.
MOVING FORWARD
Who will open the year as the closer for the Jays? Good question.
"We don't have anybody that we've anointed the closer right now," Blue Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos said. "Kevin Gregg has had a lot of closing experience. He's certainly not going to be handed the job, but he'll have every opportunity to compete for that role." He went on to say this as well. "If Kevin Gregg wins that job in Spring Training that means Cito decided he was the right man for the job and he probably had the strongest camp. If he doesn't win that job and he ends up getting the eighth-inning role or the seventh-inning role, that isn't a bad thing either. That can only strengthen our 'pen."
Downs has been tremendously consistent the past three seasons, but he has one big factor going against him - he is left-handed and really only has elite level success against lefties. Since most managers prefer righties to close, and use their lefties for matchup purposes, that leaves Downs at a slight disadvantage against the other two.
Frasor was the best pitcher of the group last season, and he showed he could have success in the closers' role. However, he has never handled the ninth inning over the course of an entire season, there are also concerns about some regression, so that could relegate him to an 8th inning role.
Gregg may not have the best skills for the job but he was clearly signed to be the team's closer despite what the above quote says. Gregg has history on his side and I have to think that will lead to him being the closer on opening day (provided he is healthy). I highly doubt he holds on to the roll all season, so be sure you don't overpay for Gregg when either Frasor and or Downs could conceivably end up with more saves this season than Mr. Gregg.
Kevin Gregg: 5-6, 4.72 ERA, 71 Ks, 1.31 WHIP with 23 saves in 68.2 IP (with Cubs)
Scott Downs: 1-3, 3.09 ERA, 43 Ks, 1.26 WHIP with 9 saves in 46.2 IP
Jason Frasor: 7-3, 2.50 ERA, 56 Ks, 1.02 WHIP with 11 saves in 57.2 IP
All three hurlers had success last season, and at different points all were asked to fill the role of closer. Gregg did so early in the year before finally seeding his spot to Carlos Marmol late (you can read more about Marmol and his 2010 outlook in Breaking Down: Carlos Marmol), and Downs held down the role for a while early in the year before he was injured which opened the door for Frasor to step through as he led the club with an atrocious total of 11.
What is the outlook for all three heading into 2010? I'm so glad you asked.
KEVIN GREGG
THE GOOD
Kevin Gregg could win the closer gig for Toronto based on his past ninth inning experience.
Greg is a better strikeout artist than you likely think. His career mark is 8.26 per nine innings, and last year his 9.31 mark was better than the likes of Grant Balfour (9.22) and Ryan Madson (9.08) to name just a few. He does post the punchouts at a strong clip.
In terms of luck, Gregg didn't have much of it last season. Despite a career 0.94 HR/9 mark his rate skyrocketed to 1.70 last season as he led all relievers with 13 homers allowed. Given that his 8.5 percent career HR/F rate was nearly doubled last season at 15.3 percent, you would have to think a regression is coming, and that should help to stabilize his ERA.
Finally, Gregg posted the best BB/9 mark in three years last season. Though the mark was still below "average" at 3.93, the fact that he cut nearly a full batter off his 2008 rate is encouraging.
THE BAD
He walks too many batters as his 3.65 BB/9 mark is worse than the league average of 3.31 during his career. You need a lot of strikeouts to overcome this poor showing in the K-department or base runners can pile up in a hurry.
Secondly, and perhaps most telling here, Gregg has struggled in the second half of the season the past few years. Here are his second half totals the past three seasons.
2007: 4.32 ERA 1.26 WHIP, 2.73 K/BB
2008: 4.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.20 K/BB
2009: 6.75 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.14 K/BB
Last year was particularly worrisome as he allowed 18 earned runs in 20.1 innings to close out the year (a 7.97 ERA). He had an issue with his rib cage, but still, the late seasons fades are a growing concern with the aging Gregg (he'll be 32 in June).
SCOTT DOWNS
THE GOOD
Downs had a couple of starts and stops last season because of injury, but he still produced a third straight year of extremely solid work out of the bullpen. Moreover, there haven't been too many hurlers in the game who have been better the past three years. Here is how Downs stacks up against all hurlers who have made at least 150 appearances in that timeframe.
2.26 ERA - the 7th best mark in baseball
11.19 base runners per nine innings - 25th in baseball
Yeah, that ain't half bad is it?
Downs is also dynamite against lefties holding them to a .232 batting average in his career while he has posted a 1.19 WHIP and a 8.29 K/9 mark in such situations.
In addition, Downs is rarely beaten by the long ball as he continually forces batters to beat the ball into the turf. In his career he owns an impressive 2.28 G/F ratio, a number he has bettered in each of the past three seasons (2.68, 2.93 and 2.36). You can have a whole lot of success keeping the ball on the ground while at the same time possessing swing and miss stuff, so it's no surprise at all that Downs has excelled.
THE BAD
With all that success against lefties it's a bit surprising to see him have some struggles against righties. Downs owns a 1.49 WHIP while facing righties, a terrible number really, and things down get any better in the K/BB category (1.76). The inability to produce top quality work against hitters from both sides of the plate is a concern for a guy with closing aspirations.
Downs has also had a tough time in his career while pitching on the road (he must love the home cooking). While his ratios in Toronto are solid (3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), his numbers when away look like something that a rookie trying to hold on to a roster spot would offer (4.94 ERA, 1.67 WHIP).
JASON FRASOR
THE GOOD
Not only did Frasor vulture seven victories, he also posted 11 saves last season, and only he, J.P. Howell and Jonathan Broxton reached both of those totals. Of course wins are pretty much pure luck, especially for relievers, but it was still a great bonus for those that grabbed Frasor off waivers last season.
How was Frasor so successful last season? Simply put he threw strikes. His 8.74 K/9 mark was strong and slightly elevated over his 8.21 career mark, but the main difference that allowed him to post a career best 3.50 K/BB mark was the reduction of walks. After waling an unconscionable 6.08 batters per nine innings in 2008, Frasor cut more than 50 percent off that total with a career best 2.50 mark (career 3.85). When you throw strikes, success usually follows.
Frasor was also dominating at home in his 31 appearances posting a 1.45 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP as he held batters to a mere .179 BAA. In addition, he was extremely consistent posting nearly identical ratios in the first (2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and second (2.55 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) half.
THE BAD
As great as Frasor was, he was so much better last season than previously that the specter of a "career season" must be raised. I already detailed the massive curtailing of the his walk rate, so there is a concern of some regression there. You would also be wise to pay attention to the fact that for the first time in four years his ERA was below 4.18. Not just that, his Fielder Independent Pitching mark was 2.99, nearly a full run below his career mark of 3.80 which would seem to indicate that this ERA was far too low. This position is further supported by his 79.4 percent LOB mark, a full six percent clear of his career level.
In addition, Frasor saw a solid G/F rate dip, substantially, in 2009. After a run of 4-straight years with a mark of at least 1.22 it dipped to 0.88 last year as he allowed a 43.4 percent FB-rate, almost six percent higher than ever before. Luckily he posted a HR/F rate that was 25 percent below his career mark, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out that if he allows that many fly balls again that he will likely fall victim to more than the four homers he allowed last season.
MOVING FORWARD
Who will open the year as the closer for the Jays? Good question.
"We don't have anybody that we've anointed the closer right now," Blue Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos said. "Kevin Gregg has had a lot of closing experience. He's certainly not going to be handed the job, but he'll have every opportunity to compete for that role." He went on to say this as well. "If Kevin Gregg wins that job in Spring Training that means Cito decided he was the right man for the job and he probably had the strongest camp. If he doesn't win that job and he ends up getting the eighth-inning role or the seventh-inning role, that isn't a bad thing either. That can only strengthen our 'pen."
Downs has been tremendously consistent the past three seasons, but he has one big factor going against him - he is left-handed and really only has elite level success against lefties. Since most managers prefer righties to close, and use their lefties for matchup purposes, that leaves Downs at a slight disadvantage against the other two.
Frasor was the best pitcher of the group last season, and he showed he could have success in the closers' role. However, he has never handled the ninth inning over the course of an entire season, there are also concerns about some regression, so that could relegate him to an 8th inning role.
Gregg may not have the best skills for the job but he was clearly signed to be the team's closer despite what the above quote says. Gregg has history on his side and I have to think that will lead to him being the closer on opening day (provided he is healthy). I highly doubt he holds on to the roll all season, so be sure you don't overpay for Gregg when either Frasor and or Downs could conceivably end up with more saves this season than Mr. Gregg.
