Offseason Overview: Washington Wizards
Before the season ever started, the Wizards had to deal with the fact they would be without starters Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood due to injuries. They went on to have the worst record in the Eastern Conference (19-63), 13 games worse than any other team. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler played like All-Stars, but the rest of the roster was a young work in progress. An overhaul this offseason is producing some grandiose expectations for 2009-10.
Cap situation: $75.8 million committed to 13 players. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season.
Returning players: Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, Brendan Haywood, Nick Young, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Mike James, DeShawn Stevenson, Dominic McGuire, and Javaris Crittenton. Mike Miller and Randy Foye were acquired via trade.
Key free agents: Juan Dixon
Five Burning Questions
1) What, if anything, can we honestly expect from Gilbert Arenas?
In 2005-06, Arenas scored 29.3 points per game. In 2006-07, he averaged 28.4. In the next two seasons, he played a total of 15 games. Two left knee surgeries were the culprit for his absence, but Arenas has been more than active in his rehab. As early as January, Arenas has been practicing against teammates. By February, teammates and coaches were talking about how he was dominating team practices and looked 100 percent. Yet, he only played in two meaningless games towards the end of the season. The last we heard of Arenas was that he was in excellent shape and attending the NBA Finals. All seems to be in place for him to be 100 percent at the start of training camp and he should have no limitations as he shakes off the rust during the preseason. With a new coach, and the addition of some veteran talent to his supporting cast, I expect Arenas to focus a bit more on facilitating rather than scoring next season. That said, I still expect him to be the team's leading scorer, or just behind whoever is. Expect to see more jump-shooting and less penetration from Agent Zero next season. Also, given their sudden depth, expect Arenas's minutes to be between 33-36 next season, rather than the 40-plus he logged pre-injury. Bottom line? Something like this: 34 minutes, 21 points, six assists, four rebounds, two steals, and 2.5 three-pointers (per game averages). We saw Dwyane Wade dominate last season after multiple surgeries; Arenas is the same age and has a chance to rebound with an excellent season, as well.
2)Was adding Flip Saunders the right move?
Absolutely. The Wizards have an offensively gifted team, when healthy, and Saunders is an offensive-minded coach. Not only that, but he has been incredibly successful in the regular season, almost guaranteeing his teams a home court series in the playoffs. Since 1999, he has won at least 50 games seven times (he won 47 one season and was fired in the middle of another). Both of his former teams, the Timberwolves and Pistons, got dramatically worse after he left. His last four times in the playoffs? He has won 10 games each time, making the Conference Finals on each occasion. Saunders is a phenomenal coach and he should be able to get another 50 wins out of his newest talent-laden roster.
3) How will Randy Foye and Mike Miller fit in?
GM Ernie Grunfeld pulled off a big trade prior to the draft to acquire Randy Foye and mike Miller from the Timberwolves for the fifth overall pick (international man of mystery Ricky Rubio), Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, and Oleksiy Pecherov. Foye and Miller (along with Arenas) will immediately improve their three-point shooting, of which they ranked second worst in the league last year. Foye turns 26 in September, and he is in a very similar mold as Arenas. Foye thrived in Minnesota when he was playing the off-guard position, and he'll fill that role more often than not in D.C. Also, he provides phenomenal insurance in the case of another Arenas injury. Miller, who won the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year Award in 2005-06, will likely be the first player off the bench most nights. He's coming off his lowest scoring average (9.9) for any season as a pro, but while the scoring was down, his 4.5 assists represented the highest mark of his career and his 6.6 rebounds marked the second-best average of any season.
4) Will there be enough shots to go around?
Both Butler and Jamison averaged more than 20 points per game a season ago without Arenas in the mix. Arenas likely still sees himself as this team's top scorer, so these three will have to find a way to effectively share the ball as they did in 2006-07. Enter Randy Foye. Foye took 14 shots per game last season in Minnesota, but he'll be lucky to see 10 per game next season. Miller is also known for his shooting prowess and Nick Young fired off nine shots per game in a limited role last season, as he appeared to be an emerging young scorer at different points in the season. Stevenson hopes to rebound from his back problems of last season, but he will have to adapt his game. He was primarily a shooter while starting over the past six seasons. The point is that this team is filled with guys who focus on scoring (and I haven't even discussed Mike James and Andray Blatche). They have enough attractive pieces that they could ship in a trade, but it's hard to determine where they need improve. A defensive presence like Marcus Camby, who is very effective even when he's not scoring, is the type of player they would have to target if they wanted to shake up the roster any more.
5) Can this team compete for a championship?
The Wizards have had terrible luck in regards to injuries over the past couple of seasons, but the unit they currently have assembled has as much talent and depth as any team in the Eastern Conference. I have no problems considering them, along with Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando, among the top four teams in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, no one on this team has ever been past the first round of the playoffs, so the likelihood of winning a championship does not appear to be very good.
Ideal Situation: The team assembled as it is right now is 30 wins better than a year ago. If the main ingredients stay healthy, this team should lock up a top four seed in the Eastern Conference. The odds are that this roster will be the one we see on the floor by the time the season tips off in October.
Resulting Depth Chart
PG: Gilbert Arenas/Mike James/Javaris Crittenton
SG: Randy Foye/Nick Young/DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler/Mike Miller
PF: Antawn Jamison/Dominic McGuire
C: Brendan Haywood/Andray Blatche/JaVale McGee
Strengths: Scoring, depth, three-point shooting, star power, average age of 27
Weaknesses: Durability, rebounding, defense
Cap situation: $75.8 million committed to 13 players. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season.
Returning players: Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, Brendan Haywood, Nick Young, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Mike James, DeShawn Stevenson, Dominic McGuire, and Javaris Crittenton. Mike Miller and Randy Foye were acquired via trade.
Key free agents: Juan Dixon
Five Burning Questions
1) What, if anything, can we honestly expect from Gilbert Arenas?
In 2005-06, Arenas scored 29.3 points per game. In 2006-07, he averaged 28.4. In the next two seasons, he played a total of 15 games. Two left knee surgeries were the culprit for his absence, but Arenas has been more than active in his rehab. As early as January, Arenas has been practicing against teammates. By February, teammates and coaches were talking about how he was dominating team practices and looked 100 percent. Yet, he only played in two meaningless games towards the end of the season. The last we heard of Arenas was that he was in excellent shape and attending the NBA Finals. All seems to be in place for him to be 100 percent at the start of training camp and he should have no limitations as he shakes off the rust during the preseason. With a new coach, and the addition of some veteran talent to his supporting cast, I expect Arenas to focus a bit more on facilitating rather than scoring next season. That said, I still expect him to be the team's leading scorer, or just behind whoever is. Expect to see more jump-shooting and less penetration from Agent Zero next season. Also, given their sudden depth, expect Arenas's minutes to be between 33-36 next season, rather than the 40-plus he logged pre-injury. Bottom line? Something like this: 34 minutes, 21 points, six assists, four rebounds, two steals, and 2.5 three-pointers (per game averages). We saw Dwyane Wade dominate last season after multiple surgeries; Arenas is the same age and has a chance to rebound with an excellent season, as well.
2)Was adding Flip Saunders the right move?
Absolutely. The Wizards have an offensively gifted team, when healthy, and Saunders is an offensive-minded coach. Not only that, but he has been incredibly successful in the regular season, almost guaranteeing his teams a home court series in the playoffs. Since 1999, he has won at least 50 games seven times (he won 47 one season and was fired in the middle of another). Both of his former teams, the Timberwolves and Pistons, got dramatically worse after he left. His last four times in the playoffs? He has won 10 games each time, making the Conference Finals on each occasion. Saunders is a phenomenal coach and he should be able to get another 50 wins out of his newest talent-laden roster.
3) How will Randy Foye and Mike Miller fit in?
GM Ernie Grunfeld pulled off a big trade prior to the draft to acquire Randy Foye and mike Miller from the Timberwolves for the fifth overall pick (international man of mystery Ricky Rubio), Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, and Oleksiy Pecherov. Foye and Miller (along with Arenas) will immediately improve their three-point shooting, of which they ranked second worst in the league last year. Foye turns 26 in September, and he is in a very similar mold as Arenas. Foye thrived in Minnesota when he was playing the off-guard position, and he'll fill that role more often than not in D.C. Also, he provides phenomenal insurance in the case of another Arenas injury. Miller, who won the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year Award in 2005-06, will likely be the first player off the bench most nights. He's coming off his lowest scoring average (9.9) for any season as a pro, but while the scoring was down, his 4.5 assists represented the highest mark of his career and his 6.6 rebounds marked the second-best average of any season.
4) Will there be enough shots to go around?
Caron Butler may find it tough to average 20 points again.
5) Can this team compete for a championship?
The Wizards have had terrible luck in regards to injuries over the past couple of seasons, but the unit they currently have assembled has as much talent and depth as any team in the Eastern Conference. I have no problems considering them, along with Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando, among the top four teams in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, no one on this team has ever been past the first round of the playoffs, so the likelihood of winning a championship does not appear to be very good.
Ideal Situation: The team assembled as it is right now is 30 wins better than a year ago. If the main ingredients stay healthy, this team should lock up a top four seed in the Eastern Conference. The odds are that this roster will be the one we see on the floor by the time the season tips off in October.
Resulting Depth Chart
PG: Gilbert Arenas/Mike James/Javaris Crittenton
SG: Randy Foye/Nick Young/DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler/Mike Miller
PF: Antawn Jamison/Dominic McGuire
C: Brendan Haywood/Andray Blatche/JaVale McGee
Strengths: Scoring, depth, three-point shooting, star power, average age of 27
Weaknesses: Durability, rebounding, defense
